This is my second post on tips and tricks at trade shows. The key to taking advantage of the opportunities to gather intelligence —and minimize errors—is careful planning and thoughtful preparation. Because industry players – competitors, suppliers, customers, regulators, potential partners, gurus – are all gathered in one location, you can learn so much at a fraction of the cost of traditional research methods – when you work smart.

Wherever money is exchanged, information is exchanged. It’s there if you know how to look.

Leonard Fuld, The New Competitor Intelligence

Key Intelligence Topics

Strategic planning focuses on your ability to clearly define the objective of the conference intelligence effort. A set of Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) facilitates the identification and definition of  your company’s intelligence needs. KITs are strategic components of an ongoing competitive intelligence process. The following are examples of KITs:

• Competitors’ positioning, branding, and messaging
• New products or product line extensions
• Extent of competitors’ presence at the event
• Competitors’ intentions
• Competitive technologies
• Drivers of innovation

The Playbook

Doing your homework before the event helps you to focus your purpose and define the procedural aspects of your collection effort at the event.  Conduct pre-conference research on two fronts:

• Learn the latest on the industry and the players through secondary sources—company websites, professional journals, news,   articles.
• Collect information on the show, including hotel and conference accommodations, transportation, exhibit hall maps, schedule of events, presentations, hosted receptions, and networking/social opportunities.

This information can be assembled in a conference “playbook” or briefing provided to each team member. Each playbook also includes a calendar of events that comprise collection opportunities tied to each KIT. In addition, the playbook provides information on ethical guidelines, the “command center” where you’ll conduct a kickoff meeting and daily debrief sessions, contact information, and rules about security around equipment, materials, and phone calls.

At the Show

Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

While careful preplanning is important, staying flexible is just as critical. When you arrive at the conference or trade show, check the final schedule for corrections and last-minute changes.

Holding a kickoff meeting with your team provides an opportunity to review the KITs, intelligence targets, information sources, and intelligence opportunities. You can reinforce the strategy and focus, coordinate assignments, and pump up enthusiasm.

In addition to planned and formal opportunities, intelligence gatherers working smart position themselves at key locations where people mingle.  These include the breakfast buffet, the exhibitors’ break room area, the hotel lobby, the elevator, the bar, the airport.

Give team members the time to “work the floor” and visit competitors’ booths multiple times. In addition to your targets’ exhibits, visit other displays.  Discuss key findings at the debrief sessions.

Next Blog Post

So, while you’re busy gathering critical information on your competitors, what is happening back at YOUR booth? What are YOUR colleagues talking about? Check in next time to learn about counterintelligence through a case study. Better yet, sign up to the right of this page to receive automatic blog post updates via email.

Loose lips sink ships

US Office of War Information, WWII slogan

“Knowledge has become the key economic resource and the dominant, if not the only, source of competitive advantage.” –

Companies spend hundreds of thousands of dollars per year participating in industry conferences, trade shows, and seminars. While your company may be maximizing your sales efforts at these events, a conference or trade show may be the single best place to collect market and business information that can be developed into competitive intelligence. Because industry players – competitors, suppliers, customers, regulators, potential partners, gurus – are all gathered in one location, you can learn about customer needs, emerging technologies, government directions,  competitor plans, how to compete in specific markets, and more at a fraction of the cost of traditional research methods.

“If there’s a more ‘target-rich environment’ for the collection of competitive information, I’ve never seen one.” – John Nolan

Making the most of each intelligence gathering event requires careful planning and preparation whether attending as a team or going solo. Working smart at the show requires focus, organization, and seizing opportunities. Determining if a particular conversation is elicitation or merely an innocent question can be very difficult to tell. Ultimately, it makes no difference in one’s need to be cautious and aware of what can and cannot be said. Working the show smart means being aware that competitors are as interested in you as you are in them.

In upcoming blog posts, I’ll cover Key Intelligence Topics (KITs), Rules of the Game, The Interview – Art & Science, and Protecting the “Family Jewels” While Scouting the Competition.

• The market for business broadband connectivity is very robust. In recent interviews I learned that network fiber and cabling equipment and services are a growing market despite the hype around mobile. 
• Ethernet/fiber upgrades are big business. Cablecos are quick to tell me that coax isn’t the only game in town…many offer high-capacity Ethernet/fiber solutions with aggressive pricing vis-a-vis telcos.
• Nearly all kinds of devices with embedded micro-controllers (telematics, smart home meters, industrial control systems) either now have or will have network interfaces. Many are mobile and wireless.
• Mobile apps for smartphones and tablets (Android, iOS, etc.) are exploding. Just like most businesses and organizations now have web sites, they will soon have to have a mobile app and QR code.
• Enterprise IT is struggling with the BYOD (bring your own device/data) trend: workers increasingly want to connect with enterprise private networks using their own smartphone or tablet.
• Industry players tell me the that IP convergence is but one key driver for  data infrastructure solutions: ”many touches in lots of places” is the new mantra.

It seems like the wired/wireless trends are pulling in opposite directions. By any measure, the mobile app space is growing exponentially and displacing enterprise desktops – IDC predicts that mobile will surpass wireline by 2015.  At the same time, worldwide demand for wired broadband and cabling plant upgrades is also strong despite a weak global economy.  There are even reports of spot shortages of fiber cable.

The wired side reflects corporate cap ex, which suggests corporate planners see a continued need for copper and fiber plant, despite a paradigm shift at the edges. The user side is driven by consumer trends, including a new generation of workers who use smartphones and feature-phones more like appendages than accessories.

While BYOD has a lot of headaches, notably security, it offers enterprise IT a potential bonanza. The total cost to provision, support, and maintain a fleet of tens of thousands of PCs can be staggering. With BYOD, much of this can be shifted to the users.

Mobile apps are increasingly content-rich and location-aware, driving increased demand for high capacity infrastructure to service a burgeoning number of users. If BYOD adds to this trend, demand for wireless infrastructure, especially at the edge, will ramp up sharply.

But what stands behind the wireless access points? Fast and high capacity cabled networks, which in turn must connect to broadband backbone provided by regional and national carriers.

The only weak spot in all of this seems to be in the demand for traditional desktop computers and software. In my work, I use a lot of spreadsheets on a Windows workstation with two wide screen monitors to bring it all together. Although I love my iPhone, I don’t see any way that I could do my research analysis with it. I’m sure millions of other desktop users wouldn’t be able to get their work done on a smartphone or a tablet. Extrapolating from this completely unscientific sample, my guess is that PCs will be a stable market (the classic BCG “cash cow”) and the mobile side will grow rapidly (the BCG “star”).

In any case, the future of network infrastructure space looks well-lit. It will be a long time before fiber cable spools are the 21st century’s buggy whips.

The approach I used was to develop a bottom-up market forecast for each of the twenty major device types aggregated into a data-driven forecast for the component’s total addressable market.

Besides working liking a demon, how did I do it?  Over the years, I’ve developed a flexible analytical framework for bottom-up market studies. I have used it to size the total addressable market for software, consumer electronics, petrochemicals and medical devices, among others. So, adapting this for the component market was straightforward. I created 20 instances of the model — one for each device type market. Using only publicly available information and interviews with key industry players, I created a data mosaic reaching back ten years in each segment. This gave me a trend line that I extrapolated to generate forecasts, segment by segment. Additional analyses of industry trends and drivers were used to tweak the model. Any growth assumption that was not substantiated with data was documented and parameterized so the client could review the results and conduct their own what-ifs.

The result? The report was delivered on time and in budget. The client was thrilled with the findings. I saved them at least $200,000 in market research costs (20 devices, 5 data points for each device, average $3,000 – $5,000 per report written by market research houses like Forrester, Gartner, In-Stat, iSuppli, IDC, IMS Research, plus costs for synthesis and analysis of same).

After the smoke cleared, I decided to compare notes with some peers. They said this project couldn’t be done and told me to turn down the assignment. They said I was crazy to take it on. Crazy?  I responded: Right Answers, Right Time.®

Northwestern University Athletics is using Facebook to poll fans on its basketball court redesign. Most of the responding fans are voting for an all-purple court (NU’s colors are purple and white.)  It is hard to imagine traditionalists and players seeing this as an advantage. Viewed on ESPN it would probably seem to many as the visual equivalent of the vuvuzela. Is this a smart way to use social media to engage fans, to generate interest and obtain feedback? On Facebook, the crowd is self-selective. With just 200 “likes” on the Facebook page (out of hundreds of thousands of actual fans and paying spectators), outliers with the largest megaphones can drive buzz and appear to sway opinion, just like one spooked cow can start a stampede.

The advantages of a representative sample are well-known. So how can we crowd-sample? Here are a few firms that find the “right crowd.”

• Trada builds specialized crowds that help companies create and improve ad campaigns on search engines like Google, Yahoo, and Bing.
• The University of Oxford hired Chaordix to create a custom-made crowd to help them brainstorm ways to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries.
• To tap expertise outside the company, Medtronic relies on Innocentive, which offers “challenge driven innovation”. Companies anonymously describe technical challenges to which members of a “global community” submit bids. A company then decides whether to option the proffered solution.
• Big Idea Group’s Insight Clubs are private, online consumer communities of 50 to 300 members focused on uncovering innovation opportunities in products, services and marketing for its clients.

Experiments show the “social influence effect” causes us to adjust our thinking to the feedback of the crowd by mindlessly imitating each other. As we become increasingly networked, the vocal crowd seems to speak for the group, yet may mean less. It is important to know how the “crowd” fits in with the rest of a population or community, or you could end up with a purple people eater.

The ubiquitous Web 2.0 technology – after all, everyone is “socially networked” – doesn’t this lead to crowdsourcing?

• CrowdSpirit was an ambitious project to crowdsource the production of a consumer electronics product from R&D and design through production and marketing. Ultimately, the short-lived platform highlights how community-based value creation strategies are difficult to implement.
• The awarded $1 million Netflix prize to improve the accuracy of film recommendations gives the illusion that there is a crowd that solves problems better than individuals. In fact, a small team of researchers at AT&T Labs spent 36 months hammering out the winning algorithm.
• Unilever, the world’s second-largest advertiser, aims to become “less corporate” by providing more co-creation opportunities. A crowdsourcing drive to generate short commercial films for 13 Unilever brands was reported to have garnered 10,000 downloaded briefs by “up-and-coming filmmaking talent.” When Kraft launched a spin-off of their Australian Vegemite spread, they turned to consumers for a name. Over 48,000 entries later, the resulting “iSnack2.0” was so controversial that it was discontinued just four days after its launch.

I’d argue that crowdsourcing is a great tool to get inspired, but it is not innovation.

“It turns out that when you have tasks that require creativity and planning at a higher level, the overhead involved and the need for consistency across the whole task makes (crowdsourcing) very difficult.” (Judd Antin, Yahoo!)

“There is no crowd in crowdsourcing. There are only virtuosos, usually uniquely talented, highly trained people who have worked for decades in a field. Frequently, these innovators have been funded through failure after failure. From their fervent brains spring new ideas. The crowd has nothing to do with it. The crowd solves nothing, creates nothing.” (Dan Woods, CTIO Research)

The most important part of innovation are the managing, mobilizing and aligning the ideas to strategic intent.

CE companies use crowdsourcing in product development. Dell’s IdeaStorm allows consumers to vote on features they want to see in Dell products. Intel and Asus created WePC, which doubles as an Asus sales site and a serious attempt to gain community input into the PC design process. Having access to a loyal fan base can be an ongoing source of free ideas and labor. The practice builds interest in the brand and creates communities of users. It’s often cheap and fast research. And, given all of the online and social media tools available today, it’s easy to implement. Why create a product and offer it to consumers when you can optimize two-way communication on the Internet and learn, before putting in too much time and effort, exactly what it is they want in the first place?

Focus groups come at quite a cost – both time and money. They are only one means to an end. Like other data-collection methods, focus groups research is an excellent methodology for many kinds of consumer research but not for all. Times to use it are when:

• Relatively little is known about a given product (service, etc.)
• Dynamics of a group best elicit respondent opinion
• You want to personally observe reactions to the product
• You need to probe to understand
• Results are needed quickly
• Actual dialog can be used to develop surveys for subsequent quantitative research

Crowdsourcing is not smart when attracting and registering a crowd is not feasible nor when proprietary or competitive considerations do not allow public airing.

When major development or budgetary decisions hinge on the results, I’d argue that crowdsourcing could add a valuable data point to a comprehensive research plan. It could provide input for product developers, designers and creative directors but certainly cannot replace them. And it is not a replacement for focus groups.

Although the practice of crowdsourcing isn’t new – interviews, focus groups, customer feedback,  and surveys have been around for decades – Jeff Howe first used the term in a 2006 Wired magazine article. Since then it has become a buzzword that describes an invitation to imagine, interact, and inspire. It is used by companies that want to be perceived as modern, tech-savvy and networked.

Crowdsourcing is defined as the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, to an undefined, large group of people or community (a “crowd”), through an open call. With the Internet and social networking popularity, such “calls to action” can attract thousands of individuals, especially when they are motivated by obsession, competition, money, or all three.

Some say crowdsourcing drives better innovation, deeper insight and competitive advantage. The notion of crowds creating solutions is appealing. After all, we want to believe that working together we can do anything.

In a short four part blog we will discuss how crowdsourcing can be a part of an overall plan to foster technological advancement, design products, research markets and sell to consumers.

Marketplace pressures are driving the consumer electronics industry (CE) to deliver more innovative products and services.*

• Average sales prices are trending downward. To offset this, many CE players are looking to find new revenue streams.
• Product innovation is not enough. Service add-ons are increasingly important.
• Customer expectations continue to rise, demanding more for less.
• Digital convergence blurs the lines among traditional industries, increasing market competition.

CE is undergoing a paradigm shift from producing devices to supporting differentiated customer experiences. Innovation for its own sake is not enough: Getting closer to customers is the key to success.  As products become smarter and customer interactions evolve, the amount of customer data is growing exponentially. CE companies can leverage technology to analyze data, generate insights and cultivate deeper, more intimate customer relationships.

For example,  the proliferation of eBook readers and digital content can be characterized as smart consumer electronics innovation. US sales of eBooks was nearly $70 million in January 2011 – a 115 per cent jump compared to the same period last year.  Total adult hardcover sales during the period dropped 11.3 percent to $49.1 million, while adult mass market paperback sales slumped 30.9 percent to $39 million. Adult paperback sales were down 19.7 percent to $83.6 million, making it conceivable that eBook sales will quickly surpass that category as well.**

At the end of 2010, Amazon’s third generation Kindle 3 eBook reader was its bestselling product ever. Its development reflects a laser-like focus on its most important customer, the average book reader. By doing just one thing well, the Kindle is elevated away from tablet wars. Today the Kindle weighs less than or equal to a typical paperback, is attractively priced at $139, features no glare, and has a battery life of one month.

Amazon’s consumer electronics service delivery platform orchestrates and manages the reader experience. Responding to one of the biggest complaints about Kindle, Amazon now offers the page numbers on more than 10,000 books for those who upgrade their Kindle software. In a blog on its website, Amazon wrote, “We wanted to be able to display real page numbers that have value and are useful for those who need to cite a specific passage in a book for class, follow along with their friend in a book club, or simply point a friend to a favorite part of the book.”

Amazon generates significant economic value from each of four focus areas that maximize ROI. *

• Capture the data – generate new insights by collecting and standardizing information
• Optimize insights – apply intelligence to collected customer and business information using proactive analytics
• Revamp development – increase appeal through more intuitive and relevant products
• Enhance the experience – extend the value of the product through the introduction of new value-added services

CE companies are uniquely positioned to take advantage of technological advances. In a connected world, companies can work on getting it right even after the product is shipped.  Customer intimacy can be realized by developing smarter product and service innovation capabilities.  Ultimately, companies can change fundamental processes and lower the cost of doing business.

*”A Smart Approach to Maximizing ROI in Consumer Electronics Innovation”. IEEE-sponsored webinar,  featuring presenters Bruce Anderson and Scott Burnett, IBM Global Electronics Industry. ** Association of American Publishers’ (AAP) monthly sales report.

By next year, Generation Y (the millennial generation born between 1982 and 2001) will make up 40% of the car-buying market in the US.  In-car technology is one of the most important attributes for them, according to a recent Deloitte & Touche report.  Built-in Bluetooth and Internet connectivity in their vehicles, more human-machine interfaces (HMIs), and devices like haptic controllers… in essence, the group wants an iPhone on wheels.

Steve Foley, owner and president of Steve Foley Auto Group, Northbrook, Illinois, told me that car buyers may be impressed by quarter-mile speeds and electric batteries, but, in the end, they are often swayed by four-way lumbar supports and 20-gigabyte navigation and entertainment systems. Gadgets are now very user-friendly and appeal to a wide audience. Andrew Poliak, director of automotive business development at QNX Software Systems Co. in Ottawa says, “Today it seems cars are just one big bundle of consumer electronics.”

As I walked through McCormick Place, I saw huge GM, Chevrolet, Ford, Jeep and Toyota displays. Indeed, a connected world.  Exhibits were highly interactive… and social.  Interactive displays – four test tracks; BMW’s Build Your Own Car station; Chevrolet’s Motion sensor Volt info station; Ford Mustang Dino Experience; Mercedes Benz 3-D video screens. Toyota’s Prius “Spell the plural” contest and record your own YouTube ad; CAS on Facebook & Twitter.  The Jeep exhibit was fabulous - a test track experience that featured a 20-foot drop and man-made snow. Hmmm, no exotics this year. Perhaps Ferrari is watching  its marketing dollars.

So, what is driving the market? What do consumers want and how much are they willing to spend for it? I decided to informally talk with some product specialists and salespeople from area dealerships.  The concensus:  car buyers want it all – looks, power, fuel efficiency, safety features, navigation & entertainment systems, connectivity AND a reasonable price.

What turned on the attendees? Eight thousand consumers voted for their favorite vehicles (selected  categories):

• Best All-New Production Vehicle: 2012 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 Fastest Camaro ever offered by Chevrolet, the car is packed with performance technologies, highlighted by Magnetic Ride Control, chassis and suspension systems. Scheduled for delivery to dealerships in early 2012.
• Best Concept Vehicle: Infiniti Essence A “Wow” looking car, Essence features environmentally sound design.  The technology and performance statement is a 592-horsepower gasoline/electric hybrid coupe. A key difference over some other hybrid systems is that both the 3.7-liter V6 and the electric motor feed their power only to the rear wheels. Essence previews a new type of electric motor, called 3D Motor, which operates in both propulsion and power regeneration modes so the battery pack is kept charged up.
• Best Green Vehicle: Chevrolet Volt Aha, here we have a remote-charging and vehicle-control program that owners can download and run from Blackberry and Apple iPhone cell phones. Among other things, it allows the owner to pre-heat or pre-cool the vehicle before getting in. The navigation system is standard, as is a hard drive for storing digital-music files.
• Vehicle I’d most like to have in my driveway: Chevrolet Camaro Just 11 votes ahead of the Ford Mustang, the Camaro’s safety features include ABS, traction control, antiskid system, front-side airbags, and curtain-side airbags. Rear-obstacle detection is standard on two models. Other available features - a wireless cell-phone link, USB port, satellite radio, and remote engine start.

OEMs face a big challenge: designing for the FUTURE.  Integrating the product development cycle for both the car and consumer electronics is an option. More market research? Absolutely!